Neil Degrasse Tyson writes in the NYT that using a method of predicting swing state outcomes to see who would beat McCain today results in Clinton being more competitive than Obama. This is true, but Obama only loses to McCain if tied polls are allocated based on 2004 results.
RealClearPolitics has an odd set of “swing states.” Using the standard of a 10-point or more gap, DailyKos comes up with a different set of swing states using Pollster data. Drawing on RealClearPolitics and Pollster data, I looked at head-to-head polls done in May or, if May data was not available, April, I come up with a different conclusion. Using the median poll as the predictor of victory, I find that among the swing states:
- Obama defeats McCain when Clinton does not in Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. This gives him 26 electoral votes.
- Clinton would defeat McCain when Obama does not in Nevada, Florida, and Ohio. This gives her 52 electoral votes, double what Obama has, and 270 EVs to win the presidency.
- Obama still remains ahead of McCain in electoral votes, 256 to 247. Obama is still besting McCain, based on Kos’s data, which had McCain holding 144 secure EVs and Obama 173 (I added 12 more points to Obama for Massachusetts, which Kos classified as swing state, and gave South Carolina’s 8 EVs to McCain since there is no recent poll data for SC).
The real question is how tied states should be treated (states in which Obama or Clinton tie with McCain). Tyson allocated ties to the party that one in 2004, handing them to McCain. By this rule, Missouri would go to McCain rather than Clinton, but she would gain Michigan, staying 6 EVs ahead of McCain. Obama tied McCain in Ohio and Virginia, so Tyson’s rule would hand McCain a net 33 points, which would give McCain a victorious 272 EVs that he would clearly be shy if he faced Clinton.
But if ties are treated as toss-ups, rather than allocated based on 2004 patterns, Clinton still gets 270 EVs. Obama, however, stays ahead of McCain by 9 EVs. Winning Ohio would clinch the victory for Obama, but not for McCain; he would need to win Virginia too.
